Downstream steel markets are recovering, while mainstream steel raw material prices remain stable.

　　On December 31, the spot market for steelmaking raw materials remained largely stable; the imported iron ore spot market extended yesterday’s upward trend; the domestic ore market traded weakly but consolidated; the billet market was steady with a slight strengthening bias; and the coking coal market stayed firm, while the seaborne shipping market remained sluggish.

　　Specifically, on the 31st, the imported iron ore futures market extended yesterday’s upward trend. In the spot market, trading was relatively weak today, with most traders keeping their quotes closed and little activity observed. With steel mills set to announce their new monthly purchasing policies, some have indicated a willingness to lower iron ore prices; however, given limited room for further price declines and subdued demand, the imported iron ore market is expected to remain largely range-bound at lower levels in the near term. On the futures front, the main iron ore 1505 contract surged, trading mostly at higher levels throughout the day, ultimately closing at 509, up 2.62%.

　　On the domestic ore front, the domestic iron ore market has been trading weakly in a consolidating range. Yesterday, iron ore futures prices posted a sharp upward trend, while today, spot prices for imported ore have edged higher amid stable conditions, and steel mills have made minor adjustments to their domestic ore procurement prices. Recently, the steel market has shown signs of recovery, yet both purchase volumes and prices remain subdued; some traders are less active, and mining and beneficiation companies are reluctant to sell at low prices. Looking ahead, domestic iron ore is expected to remain largely weak but stable in the near term.

　　On the 31st, the national steel billet market remained stable with a slight upward trend. Specifically, prices rose by RMB 20 per ton in Tangshan, Jiangsu, and Fujian; increased by RMB 10 per ton in Shandong; fell by RMB 20–30 per ton in Yunnan; while other regions stayed unchanged. According to reports, downstream finished‑steel products are trading steadily to slightly firmer, but steel mills are adopting a just‑in‑time procurement approach for billets, and traders remain largely cautious and watchful. Overall, the steel billet market is expected to maintain a stable yet positive trajectory in the near term.

　　Domestically, the coking coal spot market remains stable, with coking enterprises across regions maintaining a strategy of steady pricing and cautious shipments. Trading activity is robust, and both steel mills and coking plants are adopting a cautious stance toward price adjustments. At this stage, coking firms exhibit mixed sentiment, with somewhat limited confidence in the near-term outlook; most anticipate downward pressure on coking coal prices next month. Consequently, the coking coal market is expected to remain stable in the near term. On the futures front, coking coal contract 1505 traded weakly in a choppy range, closing at 1,032, down 0.19%, amid declining volumes and reduced open interest.

　　On the 31st, the scrap steel market experienced weak, choppy trading. Some major steel mills lagged behind in cutting prices, while a few smaller mills posted modest gains, with overall transaction volumes remaining moderate. Specifically, starting on the 31st, a steelmaker in Pingxiang, Jiangxi, reduced its scrap steel purchase prices by RMB 30 per ton; from 7:00 a.m. on the 31st, Shandong Xiawang Special Steel cut its scrap steel prices across the board by RMB 50 per ton; Anhui Lixin Special Steel raised its scrap steel prices by RMB 20 per ton; and Jiangsu Zhenjiang Hongtai Steel mill increased its scrap steel procurement prices by RMB 10 per ton. According to reports, as year-end approaches, scrap steel supply remains relatively tight and trading activity is sluggish. Although downstream finished‑steel prices have edged up, most traders remain bearish on the near‑term outlook, with a pronounced wait-and-see attitude prevailing. Consequently, the short-term scrap steel market is expected to remain largely stable.

　　Steelmaking pig iron prices remain stable, with some regions seeing a 30 yuan/ton reduction; trading volumes are weak, and market sentiment leans pessimistic. According to reports, although downstream finished‑steel demand has shown some improvement, steel mills’ procurement of steelmaking pig iron remains limited at this stage, and most pig iron traders are cautious about the outlook, resulting in subdued trading activity. In the near term, the domestic pig iron market is expected to consolidate at lower levels.

　　In addition, the shipping market remained sluggish on the 31st. Affected by the Western holiday period, shipping activity was sparse, and falling bunker fuel prices further widened the margin for freight rate negotiations. Currently, sea freight rates stand at USD 11.405 per ton (for vessels of 150,000–180,000 deadweight tons) from Brazil to China; USD 5.110 per ton (for the same vessel size) from Western Australia to China; USD 6.5–7.5 per ton (for 150,000–180,000 dwt) from South Africa to China; and USD 21–22 per ton (for 20,000–30,000 dwt) from Iran to China. Meanwhile, the Southeast Asian market continued to see subdued trading conditions, with current rates at USD 7–8 per ton (for 50,000–60,000 dwt) on supramax vessels from Indonesia to southern China, and USD 5–6 per ton (for 70,000–80,000 dwt) on Panamax vessels.