On the first trading day after the holiday, the steel raw materials market remained stable but edged lower.

　　On January 4, the spot market for steelmaking raw materials remained stable but edged lower; spot prices for imported iron ore saw a slight overall decline; the domestic ore market stayed broadly weak yet steady; the billet market traded on the weaker side; and the coking coal market weakened amid continued softness in the seaborne market.

　　Specifically, on the 4th, import iron ore prices edged lower across the board, with trading activity remaining subdued. In the spot market, during the holiday period, billet prices fell for three consecutive sessions, dropping by RMB 70 to RMB 2,120 per ton; after the holiday, prices rebounded slightly to RMB 2,140 per ton. Market sentiment has diverged markedly, with bullish and bearish positions locked in a stalemate, leading to reduced inquiries and offers and an overall sluggish market. Port inventories: According to Mysteel data, total iron ore stocks at 41 major ports nationwide stood at 98.24 million tons, down 235,000 tons from last Friday’s figure and 131,000 tons from Tuesday’s reading; under the same measurement criteria, inventories totaled 93.38 million tons. Breakdown: Australian ore, 49.78 million tons; Brazilian ore, 17.46 million tons; Indian ore, 0.54 million tons; traded ore, 31.52 million tons; fine concentrate, 4.73 million tons; pellets, 2.97 million tons; lump ore, 9.05 million tons. (Unit: 10,000 tons.)

　　On the domestic mine side, the domestic ore market has remained generally weak and stable. At this stage, steel mills remain reluctant to purchase, with overall trading activity subdued. Ahead of the holiday, imported ore prices surged sharply in consecutive sessions, narrowing the price gap between domestic and imported ores, prompting steelmakers to adopt a more cautious stance on pricing. During the holiday period, billet prices fell by 70 yuan in a row, sending ore prices into a precarious position. On the first day after the holiday, in an effort to ease inventory and liquidity pressures, major Hebei‑based mines introduced preferential policies, leading the way in cutting ex‑factory prices. Despite the shrinking price differential between domestic and imported ores, steel mills’ reliance on imported ore remains strong; as a result, domestic mines are facing sluggish sales and limited room for negotiation. With year‑end funding constraints still unresolved, localized price declines have begun to emerge across regions, suggesting that the domestic ore market will likely remain broadly weak in the near term.

　　On the 4th, the national steel billet market remained weak. In Tangshan, prices fell by RMB 50 per ton; in Shandong, Shanxi, Jiangsu, and Fujian, prices dropped by RMB 20 per ton; elsewhere, prices held steady. Entering January, manufacturers continue to face severe funding pressures, with most ramping up shipments; however, actual transaction volumes have yet to improve. Coupled with the removal of export tax rebates on steel products, this has weighed on market sentiment. Steel export volumes are likely to decline sharply in the near term, putting further pressure on the steel market. Accordingly, the steel billet market is expected to remain weak in the short run.

　　On the first working day of the New Year, China’s domestic coking coal spot market remained stable but edged lower, with prices in North China falling by 20 yuan. Trading activity stayed steady. Weighed down by a sluggish steel market and cautious downstream purchasing, coking producers have found themselves at a disadvantage in recent pricing negotiations with steel mills, suggesting that prices may continue to adjust slightly in the near term. Specific adjustments are as follows: in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, coking coal purchase prices were cut by 20 yuan, bringing the ex‑factory tax‑inclusive base price for Grade‑2 metallurgical coke to 950 yuan per ton. The coking coal market is expected to remain broadly stable in the near term.

　　On the 4th, the scrap steel market moved in a volatile range, with some localized rebounds and generally subdued trading activity. Specifically, Jiangxi Jiugang lowered its scrap steel purchase prices by RMB 50 per ton, while Jinsheng Group raised theirs by RMB 30 per ton; Zhenjiang Hongtai Steel Plant in Jiangsu increased its prices by RMB 20 per ton, and Anhui Lixin Special Steel boosted its rates by RMB 30 per ton. Ahead of the holiday, rebar futures hit their daily limit up, providing a boost to the broader steel market, which in turn helped stem the decline in the scrap steel sector, prompting modest gains at several second- and third-tier mills. Coupled with tighter supply and reduced scrap availability, certain steelmakers in East, South, and North China saw scrap prices rebound by RMB 20–40 per ton. Market sentiment remained cautious, with traders engaging in only limited transactions, resulting in overall lackluster trading volumes. Looking ahead, the domestic scrap steel market is expected to remain volatile in the near term.

　　The steelmaking pig iron market has generally remained stable, with some regions once again cutting their quotes—specifically, Guiyang by RMB 20 per ton, Longyan by RMB 30 per ton, and Linyi by RMB 50 per ton—amid a pronounced bearish sentiment. Reportedly, the modest rise in ore prices has had little impact on pig iron, as weak demand continues to weigh on the market. Steel mills have slightly lowered procurement prices in certain areas, while inbound shipments remain sluggish, making sourcing somewhat challenging. Looking ahead, the domestic pig iron market is expected to trade mostly weakly but steadily in the near term.

　　In addition, the shipping market remained weak on the 4th. Freight rates from Brazil to China stood at $11.219 per ton, down $0.186 per ton (for vessels of 150,000–180,000 tons); from Western Australia to China, $4.994 per ton, down $0.116 per ton (for the same vessel size); from South Africa to China, $7.50–$8.50 per ton (for 150,000–180,000-ton vessels); and from Iran to China, $21.50–$22.50 per ton (for 20,000–30,000-ton vessels). The Southeast Asian market was subdued, with Indian freight rates to China remaining stable. East India–North China rates were $12–$13 per ton (for 50,000–60,000-ton vessels), West India–North China $13–$14 per ton (for 50,000–60,000-ton vessels), $8–$9 per ton (for 70,000–80,000-ton vessels), and $6–$7 per ton (for 140,000–160,000-ton vessels).