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Cold-rolled sheet

"Area" is an opportunity, interconnection into steel "ticket" means to capacity

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As the focus of the iron and steel production capacity to provinces this year, the National People's Congress, hebei provincial party committee, deputy secretary, governor qing-wei zhang recently said that in the two sessions will optimize the structure of the iron and steel industry, five batch measures, "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in steel production capacity to ride," war "in the province this year will reduce ironmaking production capacity of 10 million tons of steel production capacity of 8 million tons, urged a batch of production capacity to speed up the sale.


Qing-wei zhang said that in the policy and market adjustment window period, we will accelerate the transformation of old and new, kinetic energy, as soon as possible through the throes. At the same time, set the tone in hebei iron and steel production capacity in the next five years "ceiling" is 200 million tons, to accomplish this goal, qing-wei zhang said, now is equivalent to 60% of hebei iron and steel enterprises shut down, integration, the worker also made a detailed plan, hebei has felt in these two years out of certain regularity.


The U.S. department of commerce announced recently, decided to stainless steel sheet and strip from the People's Republic of China anti-dumping, countervailing investigation. On the premise of China's steel industry overcapacity, whether China can continue to expand exports of iron and steel market will be one of the focus of attention.


Go out and meet opportunity


2015 was a year in recent years, China's steel industry downturn, steel prices hit a record low, unprecedented difficulties for industry. The national bureau of statistics data show that in 2015 the national crude steel output of 803.8 million tons, fell 2.3% year on year, for the first decline since 1982. However, annual export data is strong.


According to customs statistics, in 2015 China's total exports of steel 112 million tons, up 19.9% from a year earlier, the refresh record (including the month in September exports reached 11.26 million tons, exports a one-month history of the most). The exports of Japan in 2014, the year's crude steel production is still slightly more, is 1.4 times that of the United States, Germany, 2.62 times.


Rapid growth "China's steel exports mainly thanks to the steel products in terms of cost, specification and quantity of the comprehensive competitive advantages, compared with other countries, has obvious market competitive. Overall, in 2015, our country in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and other emerging economies and developed economies in Europe export steel power is stronger, the region is the main steel LiuXiangDe." The home of steel analyst Du Hongfeng when accepting a reporter to interview said.


As two sessions, "One Belt And One Road" construction become the hot topic of the two sessions this year, around the positive strategy to implement the "area" countries, brings good opportunity for the steel industry and steel trade, steel will be as "area" and "going out". Under the background of the industry in winter, the domestic steel companies once again to look overseas.


Iran is "in" all the way along the important country, within the framework of the future will be in the "area" constantly improve infrastructure, connectivity, capacity, energy cooperation. Recently, sinosteel international (000928, shares) company is a wholly owned subsidiary of sinosteel equipment with Iran signed BAFGHKASRA steel 1 million tons of steel project general contract, contract amount is 3.108 billion yuan RMB, the company opened in 2014 28.10% of the total revenue of 11.061 billion yuan.


According to reporter understanding, in recent years, more and more serious due to the pattern of China's iron and steel industry overcapacity, the steel industry is set off a upsurge factories overseas. At the beginning of 2015, China's large maanshan iron and steel enterprise group, China metallurgical co., LTD and Ferrum Corp., the company is jointly signed the kazakhstan 1 million tons/year integrated steel mill project joint venture memo.


"From the current situation of steel companies overseas factory in China, mainly for the production demand, rich iron ore resources, the human cost lower region, such as southeast Asia, Africa and west Asia countries. It not only can absorb excess capacity in China, also can save manpower and material resources for the enterprise, such as multiple costs." Haitong futures finance project director ChengZhiCheng when accepting a reporter to interview said.


ChengZhiCheng said, however, everything has its two sides, first go out and need to consider the local consumer demand, the local competition, local operating costs, and many other problems, objectively speaking, the domestic and foreign environmental protection, taxation policy, is to the other, environmental protection, for example, the essence of the foreign cost pressure is larger than the domestic many. Other foreign workers labor organization protection, than the domestic is, to improve the lot of also want to consider this aspect of the cost.


To go abroad, in other words, manufacturing production steel, must consider the costs and profits. The other side is the fusion problem, can bring to the local employment, can ease trade disputes. But the premise is to be able to meet the needs of the cost to make plan. This problem considering the merits of the half, close to the raw material, and the information coming from the domestic perspective, the local government is to plant's ironmaking miner to complete the project, creates jobs for 1 million tons of steel mill, far more than 10 million tons of iron ore projects.


ChengZhiCheng said, however, the problem also clear, although raw materials nearby, but the steel is to demand, the demand of logistics freight will be more, the same volume of dry bulk ships, carrying the same ore and steel, a ship carrying amount must be more ore, unit price of steel will be higher, relative argument is required.


The anti-dumping investigation


"For the first time to break the iron and steel exports of one hundred million tons in 2015, January and February domestic steel exports have fallen, annulus compared double for the first time in four years. To this, the personage inside course of study thinks, because the international market demand is low and the European organization for China's steel anti-dumping investigations, a significant decline in making exports. Exports decline, for iron and steel industry overcapacity is worse." Hangzhou steel trade business wen-jun bao an interview with reporters said.


So far, India, the United States and Indonesia have to raise tariffs on Chinese steel imports. In addition, according to reporter understanding, the commission of the official announcement on February 13th, decided to from the People's Republic of China seamless steel pipe, steel plate, hot rolled flat products in three kinds of steel products launched anti-dumping investigation at the same time, cold rolled steel sheet and on the People's Republic of China provisional anti-dumping measures, this is the main reason for the decline in steel exports in China.


"Although in recent years, the domestic steel products continuously exported to abroad, but foreign anti-dumping is, the" double reverse "trade friction increasing. According to statistics, in 2014 released by the ministry of commerce trade remedy incident, accumulative total to 72 / time is twice as many as in 2013, and this number continues to increase in 2015 to 98 / times, rose 36%." Du Hongfeng when accepting a reporter to interview said.


American time on March 4, the us Commerce Department announced that decided to stainless steel sheet and strip from the People's Republic of China anti-dumping, countervailing investigation. Although didn't specify the convenience act against China, but because China has become the largest trading partner in the United States, and exports to the us steel products amount is larger, so it is considered by the industry intends to set against China's iron and steel enterprises.


Since December, steel for restorative rose by super rebound fell gradually. ChengZhiCheng said, traditionally, steel trade, stock is one of the power of rising steel prices, but I have some different views, stock up first steel trade, 2010-2010 loss of misery, objectively can suppress the number of impulse and stock up. Second, steel trading business is sharply reduced the number of peak domestic more than 20 m steel trading business, more than 1500 large-scale steel spot market.


Although trade chamber of commerce in a cautious attitude, but can be seen from the latest steel PMI index, at 49.0% in February, still from offline, but is up 2.3% in January, three consecutive months rose to its highest level since May 2014. Especially for the new orders index to reflect the actual changes in demand side and the cost side change purchase price index significantly positive, positive factors to gather display market.


"From the perspective of the results of recently released four mines abroad, and its production cost is lower than 50 dollars/tons, and still has room to fall, this means that the pace of expansion will continue to be sustainable. At present, the imported ore price has more than $60 / ton, so in the long run, the status of the iron ore supply or will have obvious downward braking action on steel prices. For exports of steel, if steel prices continue to rise, so the market competitive advantage will gradually weaken, under international crude steel production capacity surplus of same pattern, will indirectly affect the amount of iron and steel exports." Du Hongfeng when accepting a reporter to interview said.