In 2015 is about to enter the threshold, hong kong-listed was hit by a strike again. Steel mills because the end of the capital chain tension, collection obviously, operating on all shipment at low prices. As raw materials for the steel products billet first fell sharply, as of December 23, tangshan billet at 2130 yuan/ton, fell to a low nearly 11 years. Affected, rebar, profiles, strip, hot rolled product materials common to fall, the market bearish mood. Vulnerable finishing now, at the end of 2014 hot rolling is a foregone conclusion, and although at the beginning of the New Year 2015, to suspend and financing side pressure, but as a new steel goods have arrived in the city, and the downstream demand is shrinking, the Spring Festival eve hot market is expected to continue weak pattern.
Macro aspect, the national bureau of statistics data show that in the third quarter of China's GDP growth fell to 7.3%, hit a record low in the first quarter of 2009. One of the traditional carriage of economic growth, investment growth continued to fall, from 17.1% to 14.4% in the third quarter. Among them, the three most of China's investment, construction, manufacturing and real estate investment growth fell, respectively from 24% to 18.5%, from 14.5% to 12.3%, from 12.8% to 10%. And in order to keep 7% of China's GDP growth next year, infrastructure investment as the main way to significantly speed up the construction approval can be seen from the recent development and reform commission, next year's economic downward pressure is bigger.
Inventory, as shown in the figure below, in late February 2014 a year later, the maximum then hot social inventory is basic in a steady decline in channel. The latest statistics show that by the end of December 19, the national rolling stock for a total of 2.3767 million tons from last year to reduce 1.5232 million tons. Despite the obvious decline in inventory volumes, but also in weakening demand, and according to many businessmen feedback, the south north materials are accelerating, and east China steel mills new stock in step by step into the market, resource supply, indication of supply and demand imbalances will intensify.
Demand side, manufacturing steel demand weak. HSBC China manufacturing PMI December initial value is 49.5, 49.8, 7 months since the vicissitudes line below 50 for the first time, among them, the new orders index fell to 49.6, and an eight-month low. And niche business perspective: before November car production and sales year-on-year growth was slowing down 7.1% and 7.4% respectively over the same period last year. The first 11 home appliance sales fell 4.2% year-on-year, its growth continued slowdown trend; On November 4 to light electricity output increased 3.66% month-on-month, reverse continued downward trend, but still down 1.39% year-on-year, home appliance steel demand is difficult to have improved markedly. In addition, the weather is cold, terminal shrinking demand, coupled with the steel price cut, weak businesses wait-and-see attitude, dense basic on-demand procurement, had winter difficult.
Exports, cisa release news, has steel products export tax rebate plan submitted to the relevant ministries and commissions such as finance, finally also need to be submitted to the approval of the state council, or will be introduced in the first half of 2015. Cancel the boron steel export tax rebate policy is the core of steel export tax rebate policy. The personage inside course of study says, some under the signboard of boron steel and alloy steel exports, after the introduction of the new policy, such products exports will be suppressed, or will involve screw, wire rod, hot-rolled, plate, medium thickness and other varieties.
Costs, the cost of tangshan billet collapsed collapsed round has already sent the finished product material market to fall. Also a rut and iron ore prices, as of December 24, platts index is now 62% PB powder 66.75 beauty. And month average price is under $70. In addition, according to the Australian industry forecast iron ore prices would fall by 33% next year, the cause is Australia export growth beyond China's demand growth, due to a glut on the market. Australian industry report also pointed out that iron ore prices over the next two years will be hovering at $60 / mt,. Due to China's housing market into a cyclical downturn, the phenomenon of excess supply will spread since 2015.